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How Victoria’s Five-Year Property Price Lag is Now an Advantage
Interstate buyer demand for Victorian greenfields housing has tripled in three years, and one in five of those buyers are now purchasing to live in the property.
It’s a pattern Core Projects project marketing director Ben Stewart said was more due to structural demand rather than a speculative cycle.
Core Projects, one of Victoria’s most active greenfield sales and marketing specialists, recorded 35 to 40 per cent of its 2026 signed contracts from interstate buyers, up from 11 per cent in 2023.
That figure covers 41 active projects across the state’s south-east, west, north, Geelong and regional Victoria.
Of that interstate cohort, 20 per cent are owner-occupiers. New South Wales residents account for 18 per cent of Core’s total buyer pool and Queensland for just under 10 per cent.
Western Australia’s 5 per cent share is the most recent addition, having grown noticeably over the 8 to 12 weeks to May 2026.
“We’re seeing a clear shift, with interstate buyers recognising Melbourne not as a secondary option, but as the smartest move in the current cycle,” Stewart told The Urban Developer.
Unsurprisingly, price is a key driver.
Reviewing house and land packages from Australia’s top five HIA-ranked builders, Melbourne’s median sits at approximately $750,000. Queensland packages run around $300,000 higher, New South Wales about $150,000 pricier and Western Australia approximately $110,000 above Victorian pricing.
Metropolitan Melbourne’s median price growth of 18 to 19 per cent over five years compares to growth in excess of 100 per cent recorded in Queensland and Western Australia for the same period.
Buyers in those markets, having built substantial equity, are now looking to Victoria for their next acquisition.
“Rents are astronomical in Queensland compared to what you’d pay here,” Stewart said. “People are coming back to Melbourne because what they were paying in rent interstate would service a mortgage in Victoria.”
Demand goes well beyond metropolitan corridors. Across its active projects at Colac, Core Projects has recorded a 234 per cent increase in sales volume compared to last year, with 2026 monthly sales rates pointing to a further 20 per cent increase.
Vacancy rates in some Geelong suburbs are below 1 per cent, underpinning the rental investment case for regional greenfield stock.
Product configuration is influencing results at the project level. Lot depths of 21m, 25m and 28m are performing strongly, while sub-300sq m product is in short supply relative to demand.
The interstate trend has not come at the expense of local participation, with Victorian buyers also active across Core’s portfolio
Novella at Mickleham recorded three sell-out releases since launching in late March 2026, with most buyers being local owner-occupiers. Mandalay in Beveridge has seen close to 50 per cent of 2026 enquiry come from first home buyers.
“Uncertainty in this industry tends to get read as negativity,” Stewart said. “We forget there’s still opportunity, and the numbers bear that out.”
Those numbers are drawn from Core Projects’ proprietary research platform, Greenfield Research Information Platform (GRIP).
March 2026 GRIP data recorded 1119 Victorian greenfield sales, which was the highest monthly total of the year.
April recorded 912 sales with 377 outstanding contracts. The rolling 12-month average is at 1044 sales per month, with Victoria recording the highest greenfield sales volume of any state nationally over that period.
Geelong’s first-quarter result of close to 500 sales was the region’s strongest since early 2022.
Full GRIP reports are available to industry subscribers at gripinsights.com.au.
Victoria led all states in greenfield land sales volumes in 2025. Stewart said inquiry and sales had moderated across the first quarter of 2026 but had not deteriorated significantly.
“The Victorian market is weathering the storm,” Stewart said. “If you’ve got efficient product, a strong sales team and the right price point, you’re going to do well.”
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